St. Cloud Enters Fall Hot And Dry After 22nd Driest Summer On Record

(KNSI) – Meteorological fall starts September 1st, but central Minnesota won’t feel much like it for a while.

Twin Cities National Weather Service Meteorologist Tyler Hasenstein says the first stretch of the month stays hot. “We are looking at some pretty hot temperatures for, at least the first week, with at least mid to upper 80s, and then dropping back down into the lower 80s, maybe some 70s by the middle of the month.”

Beyond that, Hasenstein says the season will likely be warmer than normal, largely because of how it’s going to start out of the gate. “Even if we end up near normal for the rest of the next couple of months, that hot start to September is really hard to overcome.”

Rain and snow totals are a coin flip. Forecasters say there’s an equal chance of finishing above or below normal, with no clear signal either way. A strengthening El Niño, a Pacific Ocean pattern that nudges the jet stream and keeps the coldest Arctic air to the north, could mean milder temperatures this winter. That doesn’t necessarily mean less precipitation, but more of it may fall as rain or freezing rain instead of snow. Snow on the ground for the deer opener looks unlikely, though Hasenstein says one strong November system could still deliver.

The bigger concern heading into fall is how dry it already is. St. Cloud recorded 7.55 inches of rain this summer. “We are the 22nd driest overall summer for St. Cloud out of 134 years,” said Hasenstein.

St. Cloud currently sits on the line between moderate and severe drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. With no significant rain in the forecast, Hasenstein expects the severe drought area to push west and swallow the greater St. Cloud area. Recovery would take above-normal precipitation this fall or winter, and rain that falls before the ground freezes helps most.

He also warns that fall brings a second fire weather season once harvest wraps up, especially across northern Minnesota, where conditions are drier, and crews are still working fires from earlier this year.

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