Forecasters expect dry summer, rising drought risk in central Minnesota

(KNSI) – Central Minnesota should plan on a drier than normal summer, with temperatures expected to land close to average.

That is the outlook from the National Weather Service as meteorological summer begins June 1st. Meteorologist Nick Carletta told KNSI News the strongest signal in the three-month forecast points toward below normal precipitation across Minnesota and surrounding areas, while the temperature picture remains far less certain.

Carletta broke down what forecasters are watching. “The primary theme of this is we’re looking at a below normal amount of precipitation. So a drier than normal period across pretty much the entire state of Minnesota and surrounding areas.”

On temperatures, Carletta says the three-month outlook is split almost evenly between above normal, near normal and below normal, which leaves forecasters without a strong lean in either direction. He says that points toward a season landing close to average.

June itself does not carry a strong dry signal, according to Carletta, and there is a chance for well above normal temperatures heading into the second week of the month. Carletta says the back half of the season is the hardest to call. “July and August, they’ll be very feast or famine. So it’s pretty much driven entirely by thunderstorms. Some places maybe get some good rain and other places don’t.”

The bigger concern is drought. Carletta says the drought outlook shows likely development across much of the state as the summer goes on, even though there is little drought in the area right now. He says summer has settled in for good, with nothing to suggest another cold snap is coming.

Carletta says the main question now is how much moisture the region can pull in to keep Minnesota’s lakes healthy through the season.

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