NWS Estimates St. Cloud Unlikely To See Spring Flooding

(KNSI) – The National Weather Service Twin Cities office in Chanhassen has released its 2024 Spring Flood Outlook, and we are in significantly better shape this season than last year. The two main reasons cited are little frost and an almost nonexistent snowpack.

Temperatures are expected to heat up again with local highs into the lower-40s by Tuesday. Record warm conditions have been abundant through December and January, as well. What little snow there is to melt will quickly filter through to underground aquifers and into the soil due to a lack of frost.

Without the runoff into nearby rivers and streams, we typically see in the spring, the only other potential cause for flooding is heavy rains from storms. NWS models currently show a below average expectation for precipitation through March 8th. The Upper Midwest is one of only two regions in the country expected to be dry in that time frame.

St. Cloud faces flooding threats primarily from the Sauk and Mississippi Rivers. Both are crisscrossing land suffering from moderate or severe drought. Without frost forcing any rain we receive to runoff into the rivers, they are now competing with soil that is eager to capture anything falling from the sky. That lessens the risk of flash flooding or localized flooding, even in the event of a soaker.

The Fargo-Moorhead region is the only one in the state that has a better than even chance of seeing flooding this spring.

All of Benton County, the northeastern third of Sherburne County, and about a fifth of Stearns County near the Mississippi River are in moderate drought. Conditions have not changed much in the past six weeks.

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