With upsets on tap, Cinderellas emerging, and blue-blood programs chasing another national title, everyone is searching for an edge with their bracket strategy.
There’s no guaranteed formula, but NCAA Tournament history offers clues. PrizePicks, a real money sports pick app, shares its NCAA Tournament bracket tips, and trends that can improve your college basketball bracket picks to help you win your bracket pool this year.
Many people know the one co-worker with minimal “ball knowledge” who has won the bracket pool by winning coin flips for every game. Or the friend who nailed the national semifinal teams by picking based on mascots.
You can put in hours of research on advanced metrics, matchup breakdowns — and somehow, your bracket is busted before the first weekend ends.
If there’s one bad habit we have for brackets, it’s overthinking the wrong things. After hours spent diving into the data, it’s easy to get lost in the sauce.
Let’s narrow this bracket strategy to eight NCAA Tournament tips and trends to focus on when filling out brackets, melding together historical trends with this year’s tournament teams.
Upsets are what separate the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament from any other tournament, constantly providing results that no one could have expected.
Of course, upsets will happen, but how much do they really impact your bracket pool ranking? Most pools double your points by round for each correct pick. For example, you may earn 10 points for a first-round pick, followed by 20 points for the second round, and up to 320 points for nailing the National Champion.
With that said, maybe people place too much emphasis on the upsets.
Someone may be seen as a genius for predicting a 14-seed to upset a No. 3. But in the Round of 32, that 14-seed loses. In the end, that bracket only has a small advantage — usually 10 points — over the competition.
That’s dust in the wind compared to 80 points for a correct national semifinal pick.
Time could be best served focusing on the later rounds — the teams that have tournament longevity. High accuracy in hitting your final eight teams can easily erase any first- and second-round woes.
Over the last 23 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments, 22 champions entered the bracket ranked in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom — an advanced analytic resource for college basketball.
Eight teams currently fit that metric: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Louisville. PrizePicks Team Picks has the first six teams above listed as the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, while Michigan State and Louisville are longer shot picks
Oddly enough, Week 6 of the AP Top 25 Poll also holds some magic, with 21 consecutive and 35 of the last 36 champions ranking in the top 12 of the Week 6 poll. Out of the eight squads, Florida is the only team that doesn’t fit the trend, ranked No. 18 in December’s poll.
When selecting a champ, team seeds should be kept in mind. Every seedline one through eight has won a national title — except for No. 5 seeds. In 2023, No. 5 San Diego State appeared in the national championship game, but it fell short against No. 4 UConn.
In the last 40 tournaments, 26 No. 1 seeds, five No. 2 seeds, four No. 3 seeds, two No. 4 seeds, one No. 6 seed, one No. 7 seed, and one No. 8 seed have won it all. As expected, the consistent pick is with No. 1 seeds, taking home 65 percent (26) of the past 40 titles.
No. 1 seeds are even more dominant in recent history; over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, eight No. 1 seeds cut down the nets (or 80%). Perhaps the top seed isn’t the most exciting pick, but it yields results more often than not.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured all four No. 1 seeds in the national semifinals for the first time since 2008. An average of 1.6 No. 1 seeds per tournament appeared in the national semifinals from 2014 to 2024.
From 2013 to 2023, an average of 0.9 No. 1 seeds per tournament lost in the first weekend of play — the first or second round. Recent history busted that trend, with all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Round of 16 in the last two tournaments.
While upsets are still bound to happen, the top dogs are creating separation from the pack. Perhaps this is a recent trend that could continue, with Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) introduced in the 2021-22 season, allowing the teams with the most financial backing to recruit and pay the best talent — even more so than before.
With that in mind, don’t be afraid to lean on more chalk by selecting the lowest seed in matchups, especially when it comes to the top teams.
The national semifinals also win some serious points in your bracket pool. Let’s go over a few trends for selecting the four teams that will play for all the marbles in Indianapolis this year.
Before the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a No. 4 seed or higher had advanced in the national semifinals in 14 consecutive brackets. Last year bucked that trend, but there’s still plenty of history there.
On average, one ACC team per tournament has appeared in the national semifinals since 2015. This included some improbable runs, such as No. 11 NC State in 2024 and No. 5 Miami (Florida) in 2023.
Perhaps that’s support for circling Duke in 2026, which is tied as the favorite to earn a national semifinal berth on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Predicting the correct national championship game produces a truckload of points in bracket pools, too, and six of the last 10 title games featured two No. 1 seeds duking it out.
These tips have focused plenty on the later rounds with juicy bracket pool points. But is it any fun without upsets? Don’t worry, there will be plenty of them.
Since the 2015 NCAA Tournament, an average of 8.9 upsets — or the lower-seeded team defeating the higher seed — occurred in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
This pertains to any lower seed grabbing a dub, including No. 9 seeds over the No. 9 seedline. Last season featured only seven first-round upsets, emphasizing the chalk discussed above.
However, over the last 10 tournaments, Nos. 10, 11, and 12 each average at least one first-round win per tournament.
A No. 15 or 16 seed has not won a game over the last two tournaments. That’s the first time since 2014 and 2015 that back-to-back tournaments featured all one and two seeds advancing to the second round.
With that said, even last season’s chalky bracket still had seven first-round upsets — and five were double-digit seeds snagging Ws.
Upsets are still frequent in the first weekend — consisting of the first and second rounds, meaning surprise teams continue to earn Round of 16 bids.
Over the last 10 tournaments, 1.6 double-digit seeds per tournament advanced to the second weekend of the tournament.
Nine of the past 10 tournaments had a double-digit seed in the Round of 16. Even the chalky 2025 NCAA Tournament featured No. 10 Arkansas knocking off No. 2 St. John’s in the Round of 32.
Eight of the last 10 tournaments had at least one No. 2 seed losing in the first weekend of play. Furthermore, an average of 1.7 No. 3 seeds lost in the first weekend per year over the last 10 tournaments.
Maybe fans haven’t enjoyed the usual Cinderella runs or No. 1 or 2 seeds falling in the first round, but upsets still occur, even in the chalkiest brackets.
Above all else, have fun with your bracket. Don’t let the multitude of trends and data drive you to insanity. Roll with your favorite data and go with your gut. Bumps in the road are inevitable.
You think winning the Powerball is impossible? Try hitting a perfect bracket. In fact, your chance at a perfect bracket — with zero ball knowledge — is a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance.
There has never been a verified perfect bracket. A man from Ohio holds the best verifiable win streak with 49 consecutive correct picks to begin his 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket.
In short, try to be easy on yourself as you fill out your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, as no one has ever pulled off the nearly impossible feat of a perfect bracket.
This story was produced by PrizePicks and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.