NWS Releases Spring Flood Outlook

(KNSI) – The National Weather Service expects an average flood risk this spring, according to the early flood forecast issued Friday. The report claims nearly every flood parameter is near expected levels for this time of year.

Craig Schmidt, Senior Service Hydrologist at the National Weather Service’s Twin Cities office says everything is pretty quiet. “We don’t have anything that’s showing up out of this world. Now the difference could be if we get some kind of major snowstorms and then a faster warm-up, that would then change things to maybe a slightly higher risk. But that’s kind of what our normal spring looks like in the Upper Mississippi.”

The NWS reports precipitation since October 1st has been one to three inches above average in North and West Minnesota, but an inch or two below average in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Snowfall has been within 25% of normal statewide, except for the Mississippi Headwaters region, which has seen snowfall 50-70% above normal. Schmidt says the dry summer has left extra capacity upriver. ” We’ve got a lot of marshes and other low areas that have been very dry after our drought last year that have a lot of room soak up things once they melt before things get to the rivers.”.

The rain last fall improved soil conditions before freeze-up, and the frost depth is near normal, with most readings between 18 and 28 inches of frost in the ground.

The U.S. Drought Monitor still reports minor to moderate drought from Eastern Minnesota into much of Wisconsin.

The Climate Prediction Center indicates a milder March, with the highest likelihood of heavy precipitation centered over Indiana.

For the complete report, click here.

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