Forecasters Predicting Warmer, Drier Weather Patterns for Fall

(KNSI) — Wednesday marks the first day of fall as the autumnal equinox officially occurs at 2:20 p.m. Central time.

With the hot, dry summer Minnesota saw, punctuated by one of the wettest Augusts on record, meteorologist Nick Carletta with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Chanhassen says short-range models are showing mostly normal fall weather patterns. Carletta says we will see highs in the upper 60s to around 70 with some slight dips here and there. Aside from some chances of rain at the end of the week, Carletta says longer-range models are showing “things are looking more to be on the warmer than normal and drier than normal side, so more [of] what we saw over much of the summer, even if we did get a little wetter at the end.”

What about the fall colors this year? Carletta says the summer drought put the kibosh on brilliant fall colors, but for the color we do get, he says, it appears leaf peepers will have warmer temperatures to get out and enjoy them. Peak fall color varies from place to place around the state, but typical times to check out the fall colors are mid to late September for the farthest northern part of the state. From roughly Duluth to Fargo and north is around mid-September to early October. From roughly Duluth to Fargo and south through the St. Cloud area, the Twin Cities, Rochester, and over toward Marshall and the Minnesota/Iowa/South Dakota Border, peak color is between late September through mid-October. For the far southeastern portion of the state, peak fall color is typically early to mid-October.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fall color report can be found by clicking here.

As for the latter parts of October, “It looks like that dry and warm pattern is likely to continue, so more above normal temperatures, more dry, but, with how much our temperatures fall on normals, that doesn’t mean we’re going to stay warm, that just means it’ll be warmer than a normal year would be.” That also means less of a chance for late fall snow. “Longer range models, we’re not seeing anything to suggest there’s anything we can say with any level of predictability, of any snow in the forecast at this time.”

Carletta says, “hopefully [the forecast] makes people happy because it sure looks like it’s going to feel like fall and not early winter.”

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