Weather Models Unsure What To Expect Through December

(KNSI) – The National Weather Service says a La Nina pattern is in place for a third consecutive year, fueled by cooler than average temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean.

The agency says forecast models were in agreement about September, expecting warmer and drier weather than normal. There is no dominant trend expected for October through December, though.

Senior forecaster at the Twin Cities office in Chanhassan, Joe Calderone says he expects everything to even out when you take a look at the big picture.

“There’s really no definitive lock on any particular index, if you will, that’s going to skew things either towards above or below normal.”

Calderone says the next three months will see bursts of warm weather and cold snaps. Patterns may even be in place for as long as a month, but they will eventually be counteracted by a strong force in the opposite direction.

“You could have even one month that could potentially be below normal, and then you have another month that’s above. You have one that’s in the middle. Well, there’s your equal chances of above, near normal, or below normal.”

Calderone says the longer the window the greater chance for an unexpected weather result. He says that also increases the amount of data to mute out any short-term temperature or precipitation result.

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